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Editor: Benny Peiser Faculty
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POSITION OF THE GEOLOGICAL SCIENCE COMMITTEE OF THE
Geologic Science Committee
-
The climate change of
our planet, which can be observed more frequently in recent years, has become
alarming for public opinion. Various methods to remedy the situation are
elaborated on the international level by decision makers, the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (operating since 1988) and different ecologic
organisations.
Having a part in this
significant debate, the Geologic Science Committee of the
1. The climate of the
Earth depends on the interaction between the surface and the atmosphere, both
of which are heated by solar radiation characterized by a cyclical, variable
intensity. The climate is influenced by the Earth's yearly revolution around
the Sun, thermics, changes in ocean waters flow, air mass movement, mountain
massif position, their uplift and erosion in time perspective as well as
changes in the continents' position as a result of their permanent wandering.
2. Geologic research
proves irrefutably that the permanent change is the fundamental characteristic
of the Earth's climate as throughout its entire history, and the changes occur
in cycles of varied length - from several thousand to just a few years. Longer
climate cycles are provoked by the extraterrestrial factors of astronomic
character as well as by the changes of the Earth's orbital parameters, in brief
- by regional and local factors. Not all reasons for climate change or their
phenomena are fully known yet.
3. Although in the
history of the Earth, a considerably warmer climate than today had dominated,
there had been repeated occurrences when the Earth experienced massive global
cooling which always resulted in vast ice sheets that sometimes even reached
the subtropics. Therefore, reliable
forecasts of changes in the Earth's climate (not to mentioned efforts to
prevent, shape, or act against them) must take into account the results of its
research of the Earth's geological history - a time when humanity (and the
industry) were not on our planet.
4. Since twelve
thousand years ago, the Earth is in the another phase of cyclical warming and
is near the maximum of its intensively. Just in the last 2.5 million years,
periods of warming have on several occasions intertwined with ice ages, which
have already been well identified.
5. The current
warming is accompanied by an increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere:
water vapour is dominant among them, and in smaller quantities there are carbon
dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxides and ozone. This has always happened because
it is an occurrence that accompanies cyclical warming and cooling. The periodic
increase in the number of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, sometimes a value
even several times larger than at present, has accompanied previous warming
even before man inhabited the Earth.
6. Over the past 400
thousand years - even without human intervention - the level of CO2 in the air,
based on the Antarctic ice cores, has already been similar 4 times, and even
higher than the current value. At the end of the last ice age, within a time of
a few hundred years, the average annual temperature changed over the globe
several times, in total, it has gone up by almost 10 °C in the northern
hemisphere, therefore the changes mentioned above were incomparably more
dramatic than the changes reported today.
7. After a warm
period in the past millennium, by the end of the thirteenth century, a cold
period had begun and it lasted up to the mid-nineteenth century, and then a
warm period in which we are living had begun. The phenomenon observed today, in
particular the temporary rise of global temperature, is the result of the
natural rhythm of climate change. Warmer and warmer oceans have a smaller
ability to absorb carbon dioxide, and reducing the area of the long term
permafrost leads to more rapid decomposition of organic compounds in the soil,
and thus to increased emissions of greenhouse gases. For billions of years,
Earth's volcanic activity along the lines of lithosphere plate boundaries,
hidden mainly beneath the surface of the oceans, has been constantly providing
the atmosphere with CO2 with various levels of intensively.
In the geo-system gas
is removed from the atmosphere to the biosphere and from the lithosphere
through the process of photosynthesis that is bound in the living organisms -
including the shell carbonate marine organisms and after their death it is
stored in the huge limestone on the bottom of the seas and the oceans, while on
land it is bound in various organic sediments.
8. Detailed
monitoring of climate parameters has been carried out for slightly over 200
years; it only covers parts of the continents, which constitute only 28% of the
world. Some of the older measuring stations established - as a result of
progressive urbanization, in the peripheries of the cities, are now within
them. This factor, among other things, is the reason for the rise of the
measured values of temperature. The research of the vast areas of the oceans
has only been launched 40 years ago. Measurements taken for this kind of short
periods of time can not be considered as a firm basis for creating fully
reliable models of thermal changes on the surface of the Earth, and their
accuracy is difficult to verify. That is why far-reaching restraint needs to be
kept regarding blaming, or even giving the biggest credit to man for the
increased level of emissions of greenhouse gases, for such a theory has not
been proven.
9. There is no doubt
that a certain part of the rise of the level of greenhouse gases, specifically
CO2, is associated with human activity therefore, steps should be taken to
reduce the amount on the basis of the principles of sustainable development, a
cease of extensive deforestation, particularly in tropical regions. It is
equally important to take up and pursuit appropriate adapting actions that will
mitigate the effects of the current warming trend.
10. Experiments in natural
science show that one-sided observations, those that take no account of the
multiplicity of factors determining certain processes in the geo-system, lead
to unwarranted simplifications and wrong conclusions when trying to explain
natural phenomena. Thus, politicians who rely on incomplete data may take wrong
decisions. It makes room for politically correct lobbying, especially on the
side of business marketing of exceptionally expensive, so called eco-friendly,
energy technologies or those offering CO2 storage (sequestration) in exploited
deposits. It has little to do with what is objective in nature. Taking radical
and expensive economic measures aiming at implementing the emission only of few
greenhouse gases, with no multi-sided research into climate change, may turn
out counterproductive.
The PAN Committee of
Geological Sciences believes it necessary to start an interdisciplinary
research based on comprehensive monitoring and modelling of the impact of other
factors - not just the level of CO2 - on the climate. Only this kind of
approach will bring us closer to identifying the causes of climate change.
Wroclaw-Warsaw, 12
February 2009
EDITOR'S NOTE: The
original document (in Polish) is available at
http://www.kngeol.pan.pl/images/stories/pliki/2.Stanowisko%20KNG%20w%20sprawie%20zmian%20klimatu.pdf